wherethepowergoes.substack.com/p/a-technically-wrong-but-useful-scenario
1 correction found
the world globally agrees on a carbon cap-and-trade system to prevent the world from warming to 3.0 degrees above pre-industrial levels by 2040.
AI 2040 does include a CO2 cap-and-trade assumption, but the article misstates what the 3.0°C figure means. In the source, +3.0°C is a modeled equilibrium temperature under a fossil-fuel-only counterfactual, not a warming threshold the policy is trying to avoid 'by 2040.'
Full reasoning
The AI 2040 source does not describe the carbon policy as preventing the world from warming to 3.0°C above pre-industrial levels by 2040.
What it actually says is:
- In the counterfactual case where the energy scale-up is powered entirely by fossil fuels, the model gives an equilibrium temperature of +3.0°C over pre-industrial. That is a modeled long-run equilibrium associated with emissions, not a statement that the world would literally reach 3.0°C of observed warming by 2040.
- Separately, the supplement discusses mitigation policies, including a private cap-and-trade market for offsets and an auctioned carbon-removal subsidy.
- For the energy charts, it then assumes a CO2 cap-and-trade forcing net-neutral carbon emissions is enacted in 2035.
So the article compresses several distinct claims into one inaccurate sentence:
- a fossil-fuel-only counterfactual producing a modeled equilibrium +3.0°C,
- a policy discussion about carbon mitigation,
- and an assumed 2035 CO2 cap-and-trade for the energy model.
That is materially different from saying the scenario has the world adopt cap-and-trade to prevent warming to 3.0°C by 2040.
2 sources
- Economics of Plan A
“If fossil fuels were used as the sole source for the energy scale up... the equilibrium surface temperature [would increase] to +3.0°C over pre-industrial levels... Under some naive energy cost modelling... assuming a CO2 cap-and-trade forcing net neutral carbon emissions is enacted in 2035...”
- Economics of Plan A
“Two specific ideas we have for carbon capture policy include: 1. Private cap-and-trade market... 2. Auctioned carbon removal subsidy... returning the earth to pre-industrial CO2 levels by 2040...”