www.lesswrong.com/posts/PCsmhN9z65HtC4t5v/bad-problems-don-t-stop-being-bad-beca...
1 correction found
we only learned about the low contagiousness from negative tests after the cruise ship passengers were sent home
This overstates what was unknown at the time. WHO and CDC were already publicly saying before repatriation that Andes virus has only limited human-to-human transmission and that the outbreak’s public-health risk was low.
Full reasoning
Public-health authorities had already characterized the virus as having limited human-to-human spread and assessed the outbreak risk as low before passengers were repatriated.
- On May 4, 2026, WHO’s Disease Outbreak News said that for Andes virus, “limited human to human transmission has been reported in previous outbreaks” and that “WHO currently assesses the risk to the global population from this event as low.”
- On May 7, 2026, WHO reiterated that the Andes virus is “the only species known to be capable of limited transmission between humans, linked to close and prolonged contact,” and again said the public-health risk was low.
- On May 8, 2026, CDC said “the risk to the American public remains extremely low” and described planned medical repatriation and monitoring guidance for U.S. passengers.
So it is not accurate to say we only learned the virus’s low contagiousness from negative tests after passengers were sent home. Authorities were already relying on prior knowledge about Andes virus transmission and were publicly communicating a low-risk assessment before repatriation.
3 sources
- WHO Disease Outbreak News: Hantavirus cluster linked to cruise ship travel, Multi-country
Although uncommon, limited human to human transmission has been reported in previous outbreaks of Andes virus ... WHO currently assesses the risk to the global population from this event as low.
- WHO's response to hantavirus cases linked to a cruise ship
The hantavirus involved is the Andes virus, the only species known to be capable of limited transmission between humans, linked to close and prolonged contact ... WHO assesses the public health risk as low.
- CDC Provides Update on Hantavirus Outbreak Linked to M/V Hondius Cruise Ship
For immediate release: May 8, 2026 ... At this time, the risk to the American public remains extremely low ... These individuals are planned to be evacuated on a U.S. government medical repatriation flight.