www.lesswrong.com/posts/a9CxzxKbqHkQBdcqY/you-aren-t-in-charge-of-the-overton-wi...
1 correction found
Polling consistently showed the slogan was unpopular even among Black voters who strongly supported the underlying policy goals.
This overstates the polling evidence. Some major 2020 polls found Black respondents were split or even supportive of the slogan, so it was not something polling 'consistently showed' as unpopular among Black voters.
Full reasoning
Contemporaneous polling did not consistently show that the slogan was unpopular among Black voters.
Two concrete examples contradict the claim:
- ABC News/Ipsos (June 2020) reported that 57% of Black Americans supported the "defund the police" movement.
- Marquette Law School Poll (June 2020) found that among Black respondents, 45% supported "defund the police" and 41% opposed it.
Those results are incompatible with saying polling consistently showed the slogan was unpopular among Black voters. Even if other polls found weaker support or opposition, the word "consistently" is still incorrect because major polls during 2020 produced materially different results for Black respondents.
So the problem is not that every poll showed strong Black support; it is that the article makes a stronger claim than the evidence supports. The polling record was mixed, not consistently negative, among Black voters.
2 sources
- Poll: Majority of Americans do not support 'defund the police' movement - ABC7 San Francisco
A slight majority of black Americans support the "defund the police" movement, at 57%, and 64% believe this money should go toward community programs.
- New Marquette Law School Poll finds Biden lead over Trump increasing, high support for Black Lives Matter and declining concern about COVID-19 - Marquette Law School Poll
Among Black respondents, "defund the police" is supported by 45 percent and opposed by 41 percent.