en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperbolic_discounting
2 corrections found
The present value of a series of equal annual cash flows in arrears discounted hyperbolically is V \= P ln ( 1 + k D ) k ,
This formula is wrong for an annuity with annual payments. Under hyperbolic discounting, a discrete annuity’s present value is the sum of each yearly payment discounted separately, not P·ln(1+kD)/k.
Full reasoning
For annual cash flows in arrears, present value is computed by discounting each payment back to the present and summing them.
A peer-reviewed paper on discounting formulas states that the present value of a stream of payments is the sum of discounted payments, and for Mazur hyperbolic discounting gives:
[
PV = \sum_{t=0}^{T-1} A \cdot \frac{1}{1+\omega (t + D)}
]
That is the discrete-payment formula. Separately, a Cambridge paper defines the hyperbolic discount factor for a single delayed reward as (1/(1+kd)), so one payment received after delay (d) has present value (A/(1+kd)).
Putting those together, an annuity with annual payments in arrears should be valued as:
[
PV = \frac{P}{1+k} + \frac{P}{1+2k} + \cdots + \frac{P}{1+kD}
]
—not (P\ln(1+kD)/k).
The article’s formula fails even in the simplest case. If there is one annual payment (so (D=1)), hyperbolic discounting implies the present value must be:
[
PV = \frac{P}{1+k}
]
But the article’s formula gives:
[
PV = P\frac{\ln(1+k)}{k}
]
These are not the same. For example, if (k=1), the correct value is (P/2 = 0.5P), while the article’s formula gives (P\ln 2 \approx 0.693P).
So the quoted formula is not correct for a series of equal annual cash flows in arrears. It corresponds to integrating a continuous payment stream, not valuing a discrete annual annuity.
2 sources
- A Mire of Discount Rates: Delaying Conservation Payment Schedules in a Choice Experiment
“PV is the sum of T discounted payments of size A … In case of a Mazur hyperbolic discounting (Mazur 1987) the PV is: PV = [ Σ_{t=0}^{T-1} A * 1 / (1 + ω*(t + D)) ].”
- Time preference and its relationship with age, health, and survival probability
The paper defines a hyperbolic discount function as “F(d)_hyperbolic = (1 / (1 + kd))” and states for a delayed reward that “V = A(1 / (1 + kd)) for a hyperbolic discount function.”
which is exactly the hyperbolic discount rate.
This mixes up the discount factor with the discount rate. In hyperbolic discounting, 1/(1+kt) is the discount function; the corresponding discount rate is k/(1+kt).
Full reasoning
The expression
[
\frac{1}{1+kt}
]
is the hyperbolic discount factor/function, not the discount rate.
A Cambridge paper defines the hyperbolic discount function as (F(d)=1/(1+kd)) and then explicitly gives the corresponding hyperbolic discount rate as (r(d)=k/(1+kd)). A Springer paper similarly distinguishes the hyperbolic discount formula from the instantaneous discount rate, stating that for the Mazur hyperbolic formula the rate is (\omega/(1+\omega t)).
So the article’s statement is mathematically wrong: the Bayesian derivation yields the discount factor (1/(1+kt)), while the associated discount rate is
[
\frac{k}{1+kt}.
]
2 sources
- Time preference and its relationship with age, health, and survival probability
The paper defines “F(d)_hyperbolic = (1 / (1 + kd))” and then states: “The corresponding hyperbolic discount rate can be derived … r(d)_hyperbolic = (k / (1 + kd)).”
- A Mire of Discount Rates: Delaying Conservation Payment Schedules in a Choice Experiment
The paper distinguishes the hyperbolic discount formula from the rate: for Mazur hyperbolic discounting, the discount factor is 1/(1+ω·t), while “the instant rate declines with time and corresponds to ω/(1 + ω*t).”