en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undocumented_immigrant_population_of_the_United_States
4 corrections found
By all measures, the population of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. declined substantially from 2007 until at least 2018.
This overstates the agreement among estimates. Published research says estimates diverge after 2010, and some measures show stability or increases rather than a substantial decline through 2018.
Full reasoning
The phrase "By all measures" is too strong.
A 2025 research note reviewing annual undocumented-population estimates says there is agreement that the population rose to about 2008 and fell to 2010, but "the consensus breaks down after 2010": three of five organizations' annual series show increases from 2010 to 2018, while two show declines. That directly contradicts the claim that all measures show a substantial decline through 2018.
A separate 2018 PLOS One paper from Yale/MIT researchers also reported that their model, "as well as most work in the literature," found the undocumented population relatively stable since 2008, not in substantial decline all the way through 2018.
So the article can accurately say that some major estimate series found declines after the late-2000s peak, but it is not correct to say that all measures did.
2 sources
- A New Residual Approach for Estimating Undocumented Populations - PubMed
Demographers generally agree that the total undocumented population in the United States increased from 3.5 million in 1990 to about 12 million in 2008 and declined from 2008 to 2010. The consensus breaks down after 2010, however, with three of the five organizations that derive annual estimates of the population showing increases from 2010 to 2018 and two organizations reporting substantial declines over the period.
- The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States: Estimates based on demographic modeling with data from 1990 to 2016 | PLOS One
Our model as well as most work in the literature indicates that the population size has been relatively stable since 2008; thus 2015 and 2016 are quite comparable.
However, apprehensions rebounded to reach a new peak level in 2021.
The 2021 record was for border encounters, not apprehensions. Official and congressional sources say FY2020-FY2021 totals mixed apprehensions with Title 42 expulsions, so they are not comparable to earlier apprehension peaks.
Full reasoning
This sentence mixes up apprehensions and encounters.
Pew's 2021 border explainer says the record in fiscal 2021 was more than 1.6 million encounters, and it explicitly defines encounters as a mix of apprehensions and expulsions. A Congressional Research Service report makes the same point even more directly: FY2020 and FY2021 encounter levels are not strictly comparable to previous years' apprehension levels because the totals include both apprehensions and Title 42 expulsions.
So it is inaccurate to say that apprehensions reached a new peak in 2021. What reached a record was encounters.
2 sources
- What’s happening at the U.S.-Mexico border in 7 charts | Pew Research Center
Border Patrol reported more than 1.6 million encounters with migrants along the U.S.-Mexico border in the 2021 fiscal year... Migrant encounters refer to two distinct kinds of events: expulsions ... and apprehensions.
- Immigration: Apprehensions and Expulsions at the Southwest Border | Congressional Research Service
In FY2021, CBP recorded 1,659,206 border enforcement encounters... Encounter levels in FY2020 and FY2021 are not strictly comparable to previous years' apprehension levels. Notes: Encounters consisted entirely of apprehensions from FY1975 to FY2019, and a mix of apprehensions and expulsions in FY2020 and FY2021.
The users of this methodology assume that 10% of undocumented immigrants are not counted by census takers.
There is no single universal 10% assumption. Current residual-method estimates use different undercount adjustments: Pew applies subgroup-specific adjustments, and DHS uses explicit undercount components well below 10% of the total population.
Full reasoning
This statement overgeneralizes the residual-method literature.
Pew's methodology does not apply one blanket 10% undercount assumption to all undocumented immigrants. Its methodology says coverage adjustments are done separately for groups based on age, sex, country of birth and year of arrival.
DHS/OHSS likewise does not use a universal 10% miss rate. In its 2024 report, the agency lists explicit ACS undercount adjustments for the unauthorized population of 520,000 (2018), 470,000 (2019), 410,000 (2020), and 390,000 (2022) alongside total unauthorized-population estimates of 11.57 million, 11.11 million, 10.51 million, and 10.99 million. Those are much smaller than a flat 10% assumption.
Older studies sometimes discussed 10% adjustments, but the article's claim that "the users of this methodology" assume 10% is not correct for the current major users of the method.
2 sources
- Methodology : Unauthorized immigration estimate | Pew Research Center
These various coverage adjustments are done separately for groups based on age, sex, country of birth and year of arrival.
- Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2018 to January 2022 | Office of Homeland Security Statistics
Undercount of unauthorized immigrant population in ACS: 520,000 (2018), 470,000 (2019), 410,000 (2020), 390,000 (2022); Estimated resident unauthorized immigrant population: 11,570,000 (2018), 11,110,000 (2019), 10,510,000 (2020), 10,990,000 (2022).
Asian Pacific Islanders Desi Americans/ Asians (APIDA/As) are the largest racial/ ethnic group of immigrants in the U.S., making up 40% of the migrant population.
This is incorrect. Census data show Latin America is the largest origin region for U.S. immigrants, and the Asian-born share of the foreign-born population was about 31%, not 40%.
Full reasoning
This claim is contradicted by official Census data.
The Census Bureau's 2022 foreign-born report says half of the nation's foreign-born population was from Latin America, while the Asian-born share was 31.1%. That means immigrants from Asia were not the largest group and did not make up 40% of the immigrant population.
Pew likewise reported that there were 13 million Asian immigrants in the United States in 2022. Compared with the Census Bureau's estimate of 46.2 million foreign-born residents in 2022, that is about 28%, also far below 40%.
So both parts of the sentence are wrong: APIDA/As were not the largest immigrant group, and their share was well under 40%.
3 sources
- The Foreign-Born Population in the United States: 2022 | U.S. Census Bureau
Half of the nation’s foreign-born were from Latin America... The Asian-born population rose from 28.2 percent to 31.1 percent of the foreign-born population.
- How Asian Americans see the U.S. immigration system | Pew Research Center
Some 13 million Asian immigrants live in the United States... in 2022, according to a Center analysis of the American Community Survey.
- The Foreign-Born Population in the United States: 2022 | U.S. Census Bureau
By 2022, [the foreign-born population] was estimated to be 46.2 million (13.9 percent) of the total U.S. population.