www.technotheoria.org/p/academias-prestige-will-nosedive
1 correction found
The global decline in TFR has been happening since the 50s, and shows no signs of stopping.
This overstates how long the global fertility decline has been underway. Global total fertility did not begin a sustained decline in the 1950s; it stayed around five births per woman until the mid-to-late 1960s, then fell thereafter.
Full reasoning
The article’s timeline is off. The global total fertility rate (TFR) was not already in a sustained decline “since the 50s.” Data compiled from the UN Population Division show that world fertility was still roughly around five births per woman through the mid-1960s.
For example, FRED’s World Bank series for the world reports:
- 1960: 4.686 births per woman
- 1963: 5.314
- 1965: 5.081
- 1970: 4.840
So the series actually rose into the early/mid-1960s before beginning its longer decline. Our World in Data, summarizing UN Population Division data, states this directly: “Up to 1965, the total fertility rate was around five. Since then, we have seen an unprecedented change.”
That means the claim is inaccurate at least in its first clause: the global fertility decline did not begin in the 1950s; the sustained global decline began later, around the late 1960s.
2 sources
- Until the late 1960s, the total fertility rate was five - since then, it has halved | Our World in Data
From 1950 onwards, we have good data from the UN Population Division... Up to 1965, the total fertility rate was around five. Since then, we have seen an unprecedented change.
- Table Data - Fertility Rate, Total for the World | FRED | St. Louis Fed
DATE VALUE 1960-01-01 4.68612931000644 ... 1963-01-01 5.31430474332714 ... 1965-01-01 5.08092208821592 ... 1970-01-01 4.83997419012590