x.com/rationalaussie/status/2109217778351866323
1 correction found
For all of economic history increasing production has required increasing human labour.
This is too absolute: official BLS data show many cases where output rose even while labor hours were flat or falling, so increased production has not always required more human labor.
Full reasoning
The phrase "for all of economic history" is disproven by straightforward counterexamples in official productivity data.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has published long-run data showing that from 1990 to 2024, many industries increased output mainly or entirely through productivity gains rather than increases in hours worked. In that BLS summary, manufacturing shows average annual output growth of 1.2% with hours worked falling 0.9%, mining/oil and gas shows output +1.7% with hours -0.4%, and retail trade shows output +3.3% with hours 0.0%. BLS explicitly says that in several industries, output growth since 1990 "resulted mainly, or entirely, from gains in productivity rather than increases in hours worked."
BLS's industry releases also provide direct recent examples where production rose while labor input fell. In retail trade in 2024, BLS reported output grew 3.3% while hours worked decreased 1.2%. In a separate release on selected service industries, BLS said 11 industries had simultaneous growth in output and declines in hours worked in 2024, and over the long term output increased in 28 industries while hours worked increased in only 19.
A single verified counterexample is enough to falsify an "always/for all of history" claim. These BLS data show that before AI, production sometimes increased without any increase in human labor hours, and in many cases while labor hours were actually declining.
3 sources
- Productivity, output, and hours worked from 1990 to 2024 : The Economics Daily : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
While growth in annual hours worked has slowed since 2000, many industries have sustained high rates of output growth through gains in productivity... Since 1990, output growth in mining, utilities, manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, and information resulted mainly, or entirely, from gains in productivity rather than increases in hours worked.
- Productivity and Costs by Industry: Wholesale Trade and Retail Trade News Release - 2024 A01 Results
Labor productivity grew 1.8 percent in wholesale trade and 4.6 percent in retail trade in 2024... Output grew 2.7 percent in wholesale trade and 3.3 percent in retail trade. Hours worked increased 0.9 percent in wholesale trade and decreased 1.2 percent in retail trade.
- Productivity and Costs by Industry: Selected Service-Providing Industries News Release - 2024 A01 Results
Eleven industries had simultaneous growth in output and declines in hours worked... Long-Term Productivity Trends Upward Through 2024... Output increased over the long term in 28 industries while hours worked increased in 19 industries.