www.lesswrong.com/posts/SwYBLQvo8MddDcCwz/cat-belling-problems
1 correction found
OpenPhil ran a contest with $50,000 in prizes for essays that disputed OpenPhil's then-standard estimate of 2050 median time to AGI and 5% catastrophic risk; all the prizes were awarded to essays that argued for longer timelines and lower risks.
This misstates the contest details. Open Phil announced $225,000 across six prizes, and the contest questions were about AGI by January 1, 2043 and catastrophe conditional on AGI by 2070—not a '$50,000' contest framed around a '2050 median' prompt.
Full reasoning
Open Phil's published contest announcement says it planned to distribute $225,000 across six winning entries, not $50,000 total. The official prize structure was two first prizes of $50,000, two second prizes of $37,500, and two third prizes of $25,000.
The prompt is also described inaccurately here. The official questions were:
- "What is the probability that AGI is developed by January 1, 2043?"
- "Conditional on AGI being developed by 2070, what is the probability that humanity will suffer an existential catastrophe due to loss of control over an AGI system?"
So the sentence is wrong on both the amount of prize money and the contest's stated framing. The EA Forum contest page also confirms that a total of $225,000 was awarded across six winning entries.
3 sources
- Announcing the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest - EA Forum
We plan to distribute $225,000 in prize money across six winning entries. ... Question 1: What is the probability that AGI is developed by January 1, 2043? Question 2: Conditional on AGI being developed by 2070, what is the probability that humanity will suffer an existential catastrophe...
- Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest - EA Forum
A total of $225,000 in prize money was awarded across six winning entries. ... Entries had to address one of the following questions: What was the probability that AGI would be developed by January 1, 2043? Conditional on AGI being developed by 2070...
- Announcing the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest - EA Forum
We will award a total of six prizes across three tiers: First prize (two awards): $50,000; Second prize (two awards): $37,500; Third prize (two awards): $25,000.