www.lesswrong.com/posts/fwZbrqqtcwibBM8Aw/no-that-s-not-what-the-flight-costs

This "every major US airline" claim is too broad.

Using the U.S. Department of Transportation/Bureau of Transportation Statistics definition, a major airline is one with more than $1 billion in annual operating revenue. Allegiant reported $2.5 billion of total operating revenue in 2023, so it qualifies as a major U.S. airline.

But On Point valued Allegiant's Allways Rewards program at only $321 million in its 2023 ranking.

Allegiant's own 2023 filing says it had $870.7 million of unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and investment securities, and $2.26 billion of total debt and finance lease obligations at December 31, 2023. That means net debt was about $1.39 billion.

Because enterprise value = market capitalization + debt - cash, and market capitalization cannot be negative, Allegiant's enterprise value had to be at least its net debt of roughly $1.39 billion even if the equity had been worth $0. A loyalty-program valuation of $321 million therefore cannot be a majority of Allegiant's enterprise value.

So the statement that rewards programs make up "the majority of the value of every major US airline" is false on its face: Allegiant is a major U.S. airline and is a counterexample.