www.lesswrong.com/posts/A4nbcBJ5CzR6uLy9s/fertility-will-never-recover
2 corrections found
People do not want more than one child.
Available survey evidence does not support the claim that people generally want no more than one child. International datasets find that two children remains the most common ideal family size, and average ideal family size is above two.
Full reasoning
This overstates what people say they want.
Official and intergovernmental survey summaries point in the opposite direction:
- The OECD's family database reports that the mean personal ideal number of children is just under 2.2 for men and around 2.3 for women across OECD countries with available data.
- The same OECD document says the large majority of adults prefer to have two children, and that only about 8% report one child as their ideal family size on average across the OECD.
- UNFPA's 2025-2026 Demographic Futures Survey likewise reports that "Two children is the most commonly reported ideal family size in five out of seven regional groupings."
That does not mean actual fertility is high; it means the specific claim about what people want is inaccurate. The evidence indicates that, on average, people still report wanting about two children, not "no more than one."
2 sources
- SF2.2: Ideal and actual number of children | OECD Family Database
On average across OECD countries with available data, the mean personal ideal number of children for men is just under 2.2 and for women around 2.3... The large majority of adults prefer to have two children... only about 8% of respondents report their ideal general family size as 'one child'.
- Lives, Choices and Futures - Demographic Futures Survey | United Nations Population Fund
Two children is the most commonly reported ideal family size in five out of seven regional groupings.
Now four births lead to two reproducing children, on average.
This implies that only half of children grow up to have children of their own, but official demographic data are far below that. In OECD data, permanent childlessness among women born in 1975 averages just above 20%, and a U.S. Census report found 16.5% of adults 55+ were childless.
Full reasoning
The sentence claims that, on average, 4 births produce only 2 people who later reproduce — effectively saying only 50% of children go on to have children.
Official demographic data do not support anything close to a 50% non-reproduction rate:
- The OECD's 2024 update on childlessness says that for women born in 1975, permanent childlessness was above 20% on average across the countries in its dataset, with the highest levels around the high-20s, not 50%.
- The U.S. Census Bureau reported that 16.5% of adults age 55 and older are childless in the United States.
These figures are well below the implied "only half reproduce" claim. The author's family anecdote may be real, but it is not an accurate statement of the average demographic pattern.
2 sources
- SF2.5 Childlessness | OECD Family Database
At above 20% on average for the cohort born in 1975, permanent childlessness among women is the highest in Japan, Spain, Italy, Austria and Germany. For the same cohort, permanent childlessness is below 10% in Bulgaria and Portugal.
- First-Ever Census Bureau Report Highlights Growing Childless Older Adult Population
A new, first-ever report of its kind released today by the U.S. Census Bureau shows 15.2 million, nearly 1 in 6 (16.5%), adults age 55 and older are childless.