www.lesswrong.com/posts/aKT6WCs3ASvBWfLw9/how-lesswrong-helped-me-make-usd25k-a-...
2 corrections found
Base case: The average job seeker spends 5 months or about 22 weeks in unemployment & that's during non-covid times.
The cited 22-week BLS figure is not the average time it takes a job seeker to get hired. BLS says that statistic measures ongoing unemployment spells and should not be interpreted as how long people search before finding work.
Full reasoning
The sentence treats 22 weeks as the typical amount of time a job seeker spends unemployed before getting a job. But the Bureau of Labor Statistics says its unemployment-duration statistics do not mean that.
BLS's definition page explains that duration-of-unemployment measures reflect "still-in-progress spells of unemployment, not completed spells" and explicitly says they "should not be interpreted as the length of time it takes someone to find a job." In other words, using the 21.6/22-week BLS figure as the average time a job seeker spends searching is a misuse of the statistic.
BLS's own discussion of completed job-search spells gives a much shorter figure for successful searches: in 2019, "the median number of weeks that jobseekers were unemployed in the month prior to finding work was 5.6 weeks."
So the post's base-case claim is inaccurate because it presents an ongoing-spell unemployment measure as though it were the typical time needed to land a job.
2 sources
- Concepts and Definitions (CPS) : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Duration of unemployment is the length of time, in weeks, that people classified as unemployed have been continuously looking for work... These measures reflect the still-in-progress spells of unemployment, not completed spells... These measures should not be interpreted as the length of time it takes someone to find a job.
- Unemployment Duration in the Pandemic: A Look at Jobseeker Demographics : Spotlight on Statistics : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
The previous charts presented data about incomplete spells of unemployment... In 2019, the median number of weeks that jobseekers were unemployed in the month prior to finding work was 5.6 weeks.
which is the average amount a job seeker looks for a job
22 weeks is not the average time a job seeker spends looking for a job. BLS says that figure reflects ongoing unemployment spells, not how long it takes to find work.
Full reasoning
This parenthetical repeats the same statistical mistake later in the post.
The BLS unemployment-duration figure around 21.6/22 weeks is a measure of how long people who are currently unemployed have been unemployed so far. BLS explicitly says these are still-in-progress spells and that they should not be interpreted as the length of time it takes someone to find a job.
When BLS discusses completed job searches instead, it reports that in 2019 the median number of weeks unemployed before finding work was 5.6 weeks.
So describing 22 weeks as "the average amount a job seeker looks for a job" is inaccurate.
2 sources
- Concepts and Definitions (CPS) : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
These measures reflect the still-in-progress spells of unemployment, not completed spells... These measures should not be interpreted as the length of time it takes someone to find a job.
- Unemployment Duration in the Pandemic: A Look at Jobseeker Demographics : Spotlight on Statistics : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
In 2019, the median number of weeks that jobseekers were unemployed in the month prior to finding work was 5.6 weeks.