x.com/ImJasonDunn/status/2107954164013924600
1 correction found
Nobody has modeled what that does long term
This is too absolute: by 2025–2026, peer-reviewed studies had already modeled long-term atmospheric impacts from satellite reentry alumina, including ozone and radiative effects.
Full reasoning
By the time this post was published on October 7, 2026, there were already published modeling studies examining the longer-term atmospheric effects of satellite reentry emissions.
- Maloney et al. (2025, JGR: Atmospheres) explicitly modeled a future reentry-alumina scenario consistent with megaconstellation growth. The NOAA repository summary states that the study simulated 10 Gg/yr of Al2O3 reentry emissions, found a 20–40 Gg stratospheric burden, and reported temperature anomalies plus changes affecting the polar vortex and the springtime ozone hole.
- Barker et al. (2026, Earth's Future) modeled a decade of increasing rocket launch and re-entry emissions from satellite megaconstellation missions and explicitly analyzed stratospheric ozone depletion and radiative forcing.
So while it is fair to say the topic is still uncertain and under active study, it is not correct to say that nobody has modeled it long term. Multiple peer-reviewed papers had already done exactly that.
2 sources
- Investigating the Potential Atmospheric Accumulation and Radiative Impact of the Coming Increase in Satellite Reentry Frequency
"In this study we simulate a reentry emission of 10 Gg/yr... We find that... a 20-40-Gg stratospheric burden of Al2O3 aerosols accumulates... Small but statistically significant changes... lead to 1.5 K-temperature anomalies... leading to a weaker springtime ozone hole."
- Radiative Forcing and Ozone Depletion of a Decade of Satellite Megaconstellation Missions
The paper models "a decade of increasing rocket launch and re-entry emissions" and includes sections titled "Satellite Megaconstellation Impacts on Stratospheric Composition and Ozone" and "Satellite Megaconstellation Impacts on Radiative Forcing."