www.lesswrong.com/posts/bAEPBD7JBsf9XKCuT/everything-wrong-with-roko-s-claims-ab...
1 correction found
since if these were not rare we would not have only one global pandemic a century.
This is incorrect: there has been more than one global pandemic per century. CDC says four influenza pandemics occurred in the past 100 years, and WHO says COVID-19 was declared a pandemic in 2020.
Full reasoning
The statement says humanity has had "only one global pandemic a century," but official public-health sources contradict that.
The U.S. CDC states: "Four influenza pandemics have occurred in the past 100 years" and lists them as 1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009. Separately, WHO says that on March 11, 2020, COVID-19 "could be characterized as a pandemic."
So even limiting the count just to influenza, there were already four pandemics in the past century. Adding COVID-19 makes the article's "only one global pandemic a century" claim plainly false.
2 sources
- What CDC Is Doing | Pandemic Flu | CDC
CDC programs protect the United States from seasonal influenza and pandemic flu... Four influenza pandemics have occurred in the past 100 years. ... 1918 ... 1957 ... 1968 ... 2009.
- Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) EURO | WHO
On 11 March 2020, the rapid increase in the number of cases outside China led the WHO Director-General to announce that the outbreak could be characterized as a pandemic.