www.lesswrong.com/posts/zXq7dpyj2ik9GcR5t/my-model-of-gender-identity

The number in the post does not match what the cited review actually says.

The review's abstract reports two different findings:

• "Declared GD among 46,XX CAH patients attained 9% of the reported cohorts".
• "Male gender raised patients (MGR) were 10.1% of CAH cohorts included in this review".

Those are not the same thing. The 10.1% figure is the share of reviewed patients who were raised male, often in contexts of late diagnosis and family choice — not a measured rate of all XX CAH patients later "identifying as men." The same abstract also says many CAH patients with gender dysphoria describe themselves as gender-fluid and do not seek formal transition, so equating the review to a simple "~10% identify as men" overstates and misstates the result.

A later systematic review/meta-analysis also broke this out by rearing sex rather than giving a blanket "~10% identify as men" figure: CAH reared females had 4% GID, while CAH reared males had 15%.

So the post's wording collapses several different outcomes into one and assigns the review a cleaner "~10% identify as men" result than it actually reports.

This sentence overstates what the cited study and correction actually examined.

The original paper was not a broad test of whether "gender-affirming medical care" as a whole reduces psychiatric medication use compared with untreated dysphoria. It analyzed a Swedish population with a gender incongruence diagnosis and asked whether 2015 mental-health treatment varied with time since hormone treatment or time since surgery. In that paper's abstract:

• Years since initiating hormone treatment was not significantly related to likelihood of mental health treatment.
• The now-corrected association concerned time since last gender-affirming surgery.

The correction then said the retrospective reanalysis showed "no advantage of surgery" on subsequent mood/anxiety-related visits, prescriptions, or suicide-attempt hospitalizations in that comparison. But that is still a statement about surgery, not all gender-affirming medical care. And the corrected comparison was between people diagnosed with gender incongruence who had received surgery and those diagnosed with gender incongruence who had not — not a clean comparison against people whose dysphoria simply "goes untreated."

So the post turns a much narrower result about a retrospective surgery comparison inside a diagnosed cohort into a much broader claim about medical care in general, the median trans person, and untreated dysphoria. The cited sources do not support that broader statement.