www.lesswrong.com/posts/gBtGLsqshdTdis7Yn/how-bad-would-it-be-if-gps-satellites-...
3 corrections found
shut down the entire port of Newark
The well-known Newark jammer incident affected Newark Liberty Airport’s GPS-based aviation system, not the Port of Newark or harbor operations.
Full reasoning
The cited Newark jammer case is being described incorrectly. Official U.S. government sources say the device interfered with an aviation safety system near Newark Airport. GPS.gov describes the 2013 enforcement action as involving a jammer used "on the highway outside Newark Airport" that "interfered with an aviation safety system." The FCC’s own notice says the jammer affected a GPS-based navigation system at Newark Liberty International Airport. That is different from shutting down the Port of Newark or disrupting harbor operations.
2 sources
- Information About GPS Jamming | GPS.gov
August 2013: FCC proposed a fine of nearly $32,000 for an individual whose illegal use of a GPS jamming device on the highway outside Newark Airport interfered with an aviation safety system in 2012.
- FCC 13-106 Notice of Apparent Liability for Forfeiture
The FCC notice concerns a GPS jamming device that interfered with a system designed to increase the precision of GPS-based navigation at Newark Liberty International Airport.
the actual entire cell network would collapse over a few days
That overstates the NIST findings. NIST says wireless service would degrade after about 48 hours, but experts disagreed on timing; one estimated complete failure after about 2 weeks, while others expected some voice/text service even after 30 days.
Full reasoning
This sentence is much stronger than the report it cites. In the NIST study, experts agreed that GPS loss would degrade wireless service after the first 48 hours, but they did not conclude that "the actual entire cell network would collapse over a few days." NIST says the major uncertainty is the pace of degradation after the first 24 hours: one expert estimated complete failure after about 2 weeks, while several others thought some service would still remain at the end of 30 days. So the article’s summary compresses a highly uncertain, weeks-long degradation scenario into a categorical claim of total collapse within days.
2 sources
- Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System (GPS) (NIST report PDF)
After the first 48 hours, all of our subject matter experts agreed that wireless base stations would see a degradation in quality of service... One expert thought that wireless networks would fail completely after about 2 weeks, while several others thought that some service (most likely voice and text service only) would still remain at the end of 30 days.
- Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System (GPS) | NIST
The report estimates what the potential impacts would be if a GPS outage were to occur today; it is the study the post cites for outage impacts.
750,000 premature deaths
That death count is too high for the pandemic’s first year in the U.S. By late April 2021, CDC had reported about 566,000 U.S. COVID-19 deaths, and a peer-reviewed excess-mortality estimate for March 2020–April 2021 was 666,000 total excess deaths.
Full reasoning
The number 750,000 is higher than the main first-year U.S. death estimates. CDC’s archived Weekly Review reported 566,494 total COVID-19 deaths as of April 21, 2021. A peer-reviewed excess-mortality analysis covering March 1, 2020 to April 30, 2021 estimated 666,000 excess all-cause deaths and 519,320 deaths officially attributed to COVID-19. So regardless of whether one uses official COVID deaths or excess deaths, 750,000 is not an accurate count for the first year of the pandemic in the United States.
2 sources
- Have You Heard? We're at One-Third! | CDC
As of April 21, 2021, a total of 566,494 COVID-19 deaths have been reported, including 875 new deaths.
- Direct and indirect mortality impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, March 1, 2020 to January 1, 2022 | eLife
For the period March 1, 2020 to April 30, 2021, the study reports 519,320 official COVID-19 deaths and estimates 666,000 excess all-cause deaths in the United States.