sarahconstantin.substack.com/p/things-that-go-boom
3 corrections found
AGM-158B JASSM-ER, also a precision-guided long-range anti-ship missile, and also suffering from low production and stockpiles.
JASSM-ER is not the anti-ship AGM-158 variant. Official U.S. Air Force and Lockheed Martin materials describe AGM-158B JASSM-ER as an air-to-surface / air-to-ground standoff missile for striking fixed and relocatable targets; the anti-ship member of the family is LRASM (AGM-158C).
Full reasoning
This sentence misidentifies AGM-158B JASSM-ER as an anti-ship missile.
Official manufacturer and U.S. Air Force sources describe JASSM/JASSM-ER as a Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile for air-to-ground strikes against defended fixed and relocatable targets:
- Lockheed Martin's JASSM product page says JASSM provides long-range precision engagement capabilities for air-to-ground missions and is designed to destroy fixed and relocatable targets.
- The U.S. Air Force budget document for missile procurement identifies the AGM-158B as part of the JASSM Extended Range family, i.e. the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile.
- An Air Combat Command article likewise calls JASSM-ER "an autonomous, long-range, air-to-ground precision missile."
So the article's wording is incorrect: AGM-158B JASSM-ER is the land-attack / air-to-surface variant, not an anti-ship missile. The anti-ship variant in the AGM-158 family is AGM-158C LRASM, which the article correctly lists separately in the previous bullet.
3 sources
- JASSM | Lockheed Martin
JASSM provides continued significant long-range, precision engagement capabilities for air-to-ground missions. The weapon system is designed to destroy high-value, well-defended, fixed and relocatable targets from significant standoff range.
- 337th TES assures JASSM-ER carriage capability | Air Combat Command
The JASSM-ER is an autonomous, long-range, air-to-ground, precision missile employed solely by the B-1B Lancer.
- FY25 Air Force Missile Procurement
The Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) ... The JASSM family of missiles includes: JASSM Baseline (JASSM-BL/AGM-158A) and JASSM Extended Range (JASSM-ER/AGM-158B ...).
it only recently reopened in 2022 after a shutdown due to an industrial accident.
GOEX was acquired in 2022, but black-powder production did not restart that year. Company and Defense Department materials show the plant was being rebuilt in 2022 and production restarted on June 1, 2023.
Full reasoning
This sentence gets the reopening date wrong.
The Department of Defense announced on August 10, 2022 that its investment would allow the GOEX facility to reopen after an accident shut down production — wording that indicates the plant had not yet reopened at that point.
Estes Energetics later announced that it purchased the plant in January 2022, but that U.S. black powder production restarted on June 1, 2023, with first customer shipments in August 2023.
So 2022 was the year of the acquisition/rebuild effort, not the year the plant actually resumed production.
2 sources
- Estes Energetics Restarts Shipment of GOEX Black Powder
Estes Energetics is excited to announce the restart of US black powder production on June 1st, 2023 and the first shipments to customers in August. Estes Energetics purchased the plant in January 2022...
- Defense Department Invests to Re-Establish Domestic Production of Critical Propellant
The $3.5 million investment by the Department of Defense (DoD) will allow the facility, owned by Estes Energetics, through its Goex subsidiary, to reopen after an accident shut down production.
a big, nonparametric time series model (which is really what a Transformer is),
Transformers are ordinarily classified as parametric neural networks, not nonparametric models. In ML literature, researchers explicitly contrast transformer-based parametric models with separate nonparametric memory or retrieval components.
Full reasoning
The parenthetical claim is technically incorrect.
In machine learning, a standard Transformer is a parametric neural network: it learns a fixed set of weights/parameters during training and uses those learned parameters at inference time. Researchers often contrast transformers with genuinely nonparametric components such as nearest-neighbor retrieval or episodic memory.
Two examples from the literature make this distinction explicit:
- Adaptive Semiparametric Language Models describes its approach as combining "a large parametric neural network (i.e., a transformer) with a non-parametric episodic memory component."
- An ICLR paper on nonparametric masked language modeling states that "most current neural LMs are based on parametric neural networks, using RNN or Transformer architectures."
So while a transformer can be used in settings involving nonparametric methods, the transformer itself is not "really" a nonparametric model.
2 sources
- Adaptive Semiparametric Language Models
We present a language model that combines a large parametric neural network (i.e., a transformer) with a non-parametric episodic memory component in an integrated architecture.
- Nonparametric Masked Language Modeling
Most current neural LMs are based on parametric neural networks, using RNN ... or Transformer architectures.