x.com/BullTheoryio/status/2056355910604517666?s=20
1 correction found
He initiated $7.46 billion in put options against every major semiconductor company between January 1 and March 31, 2026.
The SEC filing does show new put positions, but the $7.46B figure is wrong and 13F option “values” are not the cash paid for the options. In Form 13F, option values are reported in terms of the underlying securities.
Full reasoning
Situational Awareness LP's Q1 2026 13F does list new put lines for SMH ($2,042,716,860), Nvidia ($1,568,257,120), Oracle ($1,072,873,230), Broadcom ($1,006,247,961), AMD ($969,160,863), Micron ($583,686,168), Taiwan Semiconductor ($535,110,030), ASML ($494,122,503), and Intel ($159,106,302).
Two problems make the post's claim incorrect:
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The arithmetic does not match the filing. Those nine listed put lines add up to $8,431,281,037, not $7.46 billion. If Oracle is excluded because it is not a semiconductor company, the remaining semiconductor-related lines add up to $7,358,407,807, still not $7.46 billion.
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Form 13F option values are not the option premiums/capital committed. The SEC's Form 13F guidance says option entries are reported in terms of the underlying security, and an SEC-filed 13F amendment explicitly states that Column 4 values for options must be reported "in terms of the securities underlying the options, not the options themselves." So describing this as Aschenbrenner having "initiated $7.46 billion in put options" overstates what the filing actually proves about the size of the option bets.
So the filing supports that new put positions appeared by March 31, 2026, but it does not support the specific '$7.46 billion in put options' claim.
3 sources
- SEC FORM 13-F Information Table — Situational Awareness LP, Q1 2026
The Q1 2026 information table lists put positions including VANECK ETF TRUST $2,042,716,860 Put, NVIDIA $1,568,257,120 Put, ORACLE $1,072,873,230 Put, BROADCOM $1,006,247,961 Put, AMD $969,160,863 Put, MICRON $583,686,168 Put, TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR $535,110,030 Put, ASML $494,122,503 Put, and INTEL $159,106,302 Put.
- SEC.gov | Frequently Asked Questions About Form 13F
Question 44: 'For options, you will also enter either PUT or CALL... most of the column entries for an option refer to the underlying security, rather than to the option itself.'
- SEC FORM 13F-HR/A — Symmetry Investments LP amendment
The amendment says it corrects 'the Column 4 value of options positions... consistent with the instructions to Form 13F, which state that such value must be reported in terms of the securities underlying the options, not the options themselves.'