www.lesswrong.com/posts/bKrpLhqcoN6WycrFp/citrini-s-scenario-is-a-great-but-deep...
1 correction found
a democratic system cannot even sustain 15% unemployment at any point, much less larger numbers.
Democracies have sustained unemployment well above 15%—for example, the United States during the Great Depression saw unemployment around 20–25% for multiple years while remaining a democratic system.
Full reasoning
The post quotes a categorical claim that no democratic system can sustain 15% unemployment at any point. That is contradicted by historical unemployment data for the United States (a long-running democracy).
Counterexample (U.S. Great Depression):
- Historical time series data compiled by FRED (NBER Macrohistory database) shows U.S. unemployment rising above 15% in 1931 (e.g., 15.01% in 1931-08) and remaining well above that level for years, peaking above 25% in 1932–1933. This directly contradicts the claim that a democratic system “cannot even sustain 15% unemployment at any point.”
- A separate educational resource (Gilder Lehrman Institute of American History) similarly reports U.S. unemployment at 23.6% (1932) and 24.9% (1933).
Because a well-known democracy (the U.S.) experienced and endured unemployment far above 15%, the quoted statement is factually incorrect as written.
2 sources
- Unemployment Rate for United States (NBER Macrohistory Database) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
FRED table data shows U.S. unemployment exceeding 15% in 1931 (e.g., 1931-08-01: 15.01) and peaking above 25% in 1932–1933 (e.g., 1933-05-01: 25.59).
- Statistics: The Impact of the Depression | Gilder Lehrman Institute of American History
Lists unemployment as a percentage of the labor force during the Great Depression, including 1932: 23.6 percent and 1933: 24.9 percent.