All corrections
LessWrong February 25, 2026 at 01:15 AM

www.lesswrong.com/posts/MPS2KKPN2H3p8dNHT/observations-from-running-an-agent-col...

1 correction found

1
Claim
Critical discovery from source code: Only REALIZED P&L counts for league scoring, not unrealized.
Correction

Manifold’s Leagues pages describe leagues as counting profit including both realized and unrealized profit, contradicting the claim that only realized P&L counts.

Full reasoning

The post claims that for Manifold Leagues “Only REALIZED P&L counts for league scoring, not unrealized.”

However, Manifold’s own Leagues pages explicitly describe leagues as awarding prizes based on profit including both realized and unrealized profit. For example, multiple league pages include the line:

  • “Win prizes for the most profit (realized and unrealized) on trades placed this month!”

That statement directly contradicts the post’s claim that unrealized P&L does not count for league scoring.

Therefore, the claim is factually incorrect per Manifold’s league descriptions.

2 sources
  • Leagues | Manifold

    Win prizes for the most profit (realized and unrealized) on trades placed this month!

  • Leagues | Manifold

    Win prizes for the most profit (realized and unrealized) on trades placed this month!

Model: OPENAI_GPT_5 Prompt: v1.6.0