www.astralcodexten.com/p/malicious-streetlight-effects-vs
1 correction found
If you counted those, illegal immigration through the southern border was near record highs.
Government and research data show total illegal-crossing indicators at the U.S. southwest border in FY2016 were far below historical peaks (e.g., the 2000 peak), not “near record highs,” even though the mix shifted from Mexicans toward Central Americans.
Full reasoning
What the post claims
The post states that once you include Central Americans (Hondurans/Guatemalans/Salvadoreans) in addition to Mexicans, “illegal immigration through the southern border was near record highs” (in the 2016-election-era context).
What the best available measures show
A standard, widely used indicator of illegal entries at the southwest border is U.S. Border Patrol apprehensions between ports of entry (with the common caveat that apprehensions are an imperfect proxy for total attempts).
- CBP reports 408,870 total southwest-border apprehensions in FY2016, and explicitly notes this was “a fraction” of the levels “routinely observed from the 1980s through 2008.” That description is inconsistent with “near record highs.”
- Pew Research Center summarizes the longer-run series and reports that annual border apprehensions “peaked in 2000 at about 1.7 million.” Compared to that peak, FY2016’s 408,870 is nowhere close (roughly one quarter of the 2000 peak).
What is true (but doesn’t rescue the ‘record highs’ claim)
Both CBP and Pew note that the composition changed (fewer Mexicans; more from El Salvador/Guatemala/Honduras), including years when Northern Triangle apprehensions exceeded Mexicans (e.g., 2014 and again around 2016). That supports the “shift” point, but it does not support the claim that overall illegal immigration at the southern border was near record highs.
Bottom line: Even counting all nationalities, credible historical data show southwest-border illegal-entry indicators in FY2016 were well below record levels, so the “near record highs” characterization is contradicted by the evidence.
2 sources
- United States Border Patrol Southwest Family Unit Subject and Unaccompanied Alien Children Apprehensions Fiscal Year 2016 | U.S. Customs and Border Protection
CBP (statement by Secretary Johnson): “In Fiscal Year 2016, total apprehensions…numbered 408,870…[and] was…a fraction of the number of apprehensions routinely observed from the 1980s through 2008.”
- U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Total Dips to Lowest Level in a Decade | Pew Research Center
Pew: “Annual apprehensions…peaked in 2000 at about 1.7 million…” (showing FY2016-era levels were far below historical peaks).