x.com/shlevy/status/2027087975910093151

What the post claims

It asserts that the probability (“odds”) of being alive at the moment The Simpsons S8E23 (“Homer’s Enemy”) first aired is “basically zero.”

What the evidence shows

1. The episode’s original U.S. air date was May 4, 1997.
   Multiple reputable episode references list May 4, 1997 as the original air date.

2. Around 5.9 billion people were alive in 1997.
   World Bank population totals show the world population in 1997 was 5,908,466,558—i.e., billions of people were alive that year.

3. Even if you interpret “odds” as “pick a random human who has ever been born,” the probability is still not near zero.
   The Population Reference Bureau (PRB) estimates about 117 billion humans have ever been born. Using the World Bank’s 1997 population figure as an approximation for the number alive at the time of the broadcast, that’s roughly 5% (≈5.9B / 117B) of all humans ever born—small, but nowhere close to “basically zero.”

Why this contradicts the claim

Because billions of people were alive when the episode aired (and even the “ever lived” framing yields a probability around 5%), the statement that the odds are “basically zero” is not supported by the demographic data.