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What the post claims

The post asserts: “the lifetime divorce rate is actually only 30% not 50%.”

What credible data shows instead

1) CDC (NCHS) NSFG “Key Statistics” show first-marriage disruption far above 30%.
The CDC’s National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) defines marital disruption as separation, divorce, or death (rare for ages 15–44). For women ages 15–44 in 2011–2015, the CDC reports:

• Probability of first marriage disruption by 15 years: 45%
• Probability of first marriage disruption by 20 years: 53%

Crucially, the CDC also reports that separations typically transition into divorces over time (e.g., by 5 years of separation, 84% transitioned to divorce in 2011–2015). That means a large fraction of “disruptions” end up as divorces, so it is not consistent to describe the “lifetime divorce rate” as only 30% in general.

2) A U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) cohort study finds divorce well above 30% among ever-married Americans.
A BLS Monthly Labor Review analysis of the NLSY79 cohort (born 1957–1964) reports that by age 55:

• 40% had divorced at least once, and
• among those who had married, 46% had divorced at least once.

Conclusion

Because official U.S. government statistics show marital disruption (and substantial divorce) rates in the 40–50% range in these referenced measures, the post’s unqualified statement that the lifetime divorce rate is “only 30%” is contradicted by the available government data.

(Separately, the post is correct that the oft-repeated “50% of marriages end in divorce” line is commonly described as an overstatement in some contexts—but that does not make 30% a generally accurate replacement figure.)