x.com/ryancbriggs/status/2027097790371766592
1 correction found
4.5 minutes per day is associated with 31% reduction in cancer incidence.
The underlying UK Biobank accelerometry study reports ~31–32% lower incidence for *physical activity–related* cancers, not for cancer overall; for total cancer incidence at 4.5 min/day, the association is ~20% lower.
Full reasoning
The quoted post attributes a 31% reduction in “cancer incidence” to just 4.5 minutes per day. The primary study this statistic comes from (Stamatakis et al., JAMA Oncology, 2023; available on PubMed Central) distinguishes between:
- Total cancer incidence (all cancers combined), and
- Physical activity–related (PA-related) cancer incidence (a composite of 13 cancer sites linked to low physical activity).
In that paper, the 31%–32% figure is explicitly tied to PA-related cancer incidence, not total cancer incidence.
The same paper also reports that at 4.5 minutes/day, the hazard ratio for total cancer is 0.80 (≈ 20% lower), whereas the hazard ratio for PA-related cancer is 0.69 (≈ 31% lower). Therefore, stating “31% reduction in cancer incidence” without specifying PA-related cancers is inaccurate as written, because it implies the 31% applies to overall cancer incidence.
(Separately, Ryan Briggs’ reply (“it’s wrong to understand this causally”) is an interpretation/opinion about causality, not a checkable factual claim.)
1 source
- Vigorous Intermittent Lifestyle Physical Activity and Cancer Incidence Among Nonexercising Adults: The UK Biobank Accelerometry Study (JAMA Oncology, 2023) - PubMed Central
Key Points: “A median daily VILPA of 4.5 minutes was associated with a 31% to 32% reduction in physical activity–related cancer incidence.” Results: “4.5 minutes per day… HR of 0.80… for total cancer and 0.69… for PA-related cancer.”