www.lesswrong.com/posts/n8u3BfqFoGh4jnzpo/plan-r-ai-safety-by-asics
1 correction found
the industry currently really only exists in two countries
This overstates how geographically limited frontier AI is. By 2025–2026, credible sources identified notable frontier-model developers in more than two countries, including the UK, France, Germany, South Korea, Canada, and Hong Kong.
Full reasoning
The claim says the relevant AI industry "only exists in two countries." That is not supported by major contemporary datasets.
- Stanford HAI's 2026 AI Index reports that in 2025 notable AI models came not just from the United States and China, but also from South Korea, Canada, France, Hong Kong, and the United Kingdom.
- The OECD's 2025 report on AI markets says that, as of January 2025, the AI model frontier was composed of 10 companies from five countries: the United States, China, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France.
So it is fair to say frontier AI is concentrated in the U.S. and China, but not that the industry "only exists" in two countries. The post's wording turns a concentration claim into an exclusivity claim, and that stronger claim is contradicted by the cited sources.
2 sources
- 1 RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT | AI INDEX REPORT 2026
Horizontal bar chart titled “Number of notable AI models by select geographic areas, 2025” ... Categories and values: United States 50; China 30; South Korea 5; Canada 1; France 1; Hong Kong 1; United Kingdom 1.
- Developments in Artificial Intelligence markets: New indicators based on model characteristics, prices and providers
When zooming on the country of origin of the developer company and looking at the distance to the frontier in January 2025 (Figure 6), we see that the frontier for AI models is composed of 10 companies from five countries: the United States, China, the United Kingdom, Germany and France.