www.lesswrong.com/posts/P9EdMqTscmcsorret/forecasting-is-not-overrated-and-it-s-...

Coefficient Giving’s Forecasting Fund page says the fund has given $50+ million. If that total were spread over “close to a decade,” the annual average would be roughly $5 million per year (for example, $50M / 10 years = $5M; even $50M / 8 years = $6.25M), not $10 million per year.

There is also reason to doubt the “close to a decade” framing for the dedicated forecasting fund itself: Coefficient Giving announced forecasting as an official grantmaking focus area on February 19, 2024, and said at that time that it had made several forecasting grants in the last few years. But even taking the post’s own “close to a decade” wording at face value, the conclusion “which would make it ten million per year” is mathematically incorrect.