www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-metaculus-threat-to-democracy
1 correction found
Their Democracy Threat Index is a collection of 153 questions relevant to US democracy.
The index does not consist of 153 distinct forecast questions. Metaculus’s own description says the Democracy Threat Index consists of 39 questions, while the larger top-line count includes backfilled entries for prior periods.
Full reasoning
Metaculus’s official description of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index says "The index consists of 39 questions". The same page explains why a much larger count appears elsewhere: the "View Questions" total includes backfilled questions providing past data for earlier periods such as 2021–2022 and 2023–2024.
So the article’s wording is inaccurate in a way that matters for understanding the product. The index is not a set of 153 distinct democracy questions; it is a smaller recurring set of forecast questions, with additional backfilled period-specific entries included in the page’s larger item count.
1 source
- U.S. Democracy Threat Index | Metaculus
This index was created by the nonpartisan group Bright Line Watch (BLW)... The index consists of 39 questions... (Note that there are 39 questions to forecast, and the 'View Questions (154)' at the top of the index includes backfilled questions providing past data.)