www.astralcodexten.com/p/half-an-hour-before-dawn-in-san-francisco
2 corrections found
would crescendo at the end of time in approximately 2029
Kurzweil did not place the Singularity in 2029. He has long used 2029 for human-level AI/Turing-test milestones, while placing the Singularity itself around 2045.
Full reasoning
This sentence collapses two different Kurzweil dates into one.
Kurzweil has repeatedly distinguished 2029 from the Singularity:
- In a 2002 essay reproduced in the Ray Kurzweil Reader, he wrote that he had "projected the date 2029 for a nonbiological intelligence to pass the Turing test," and then immediately clarified: "However, the threshold of a machine passing a valid Turing test ... does not represent the Singularity ... I estimate the Singularity at around 2045."
- Penguin Random House's description of The Singularity Is Nearer says Kurzweil is "assessing his 1999 prediction that AI will reach human level intelligence by 2029".
- In a 2024 Guardian interview, Kurzweil again said his predictions were unchanged: computers reach human-level intelligence by 2029, while humans merge with computers and become superhuman around 2045, "which he called 'the Singularity.'"
So the article's wording is inaccurate because it assigns Kurzweil's Singularity/end-of-history date to 2029 instead of 2045.
3 sources
- Ray Kurzweil Reader (KurzweilAI)
"I've projected the date 2029 for a nonbiological intelligence to pass the Turing test... However... does not represent the Singularity... I estimate the Singularity at around 2045."
- The Singularity Is Nearer by Ray Kurzweil | Penguin Random House
"assessing his 1999 prediction that AI will reach human level intelligence by 2029"
- AI scientist Ray Kurzweil: 'We are going to expand intelligence a millionfold by 2045' | The Guardian
Kurzweil's 2005 book predicted that computers would reach human-level intelligence by 2029 and that we would merge with computers and become superhuman around 2045, which he called "the Singularity."
Then an angel descended, and prophesied this was not the destined child, not how things were supposed to go.
In Genesis, the angel's message to Hagar does not say Ishmael is 'not the destined child.' The angel foretells Ishmael's birth and character; the later promise that Sarah will bear the covenant son Isaac comes separately in Genesis 17.
Full reasoning
This sentence misstates the biblical sequence.
In Genesis 16, the angel's message to Hagar is that she will bear a son named Ishmael, and that "he will be a wild donkey of a man". The angel does not say that Ishmael is "not the destined child" or that this birth is "not how things were supposed to go."
The separate statement that Sarah will bear the covenant son appears later, in Genesis 17:19, where God says to Abraham: "Sarah your wife shall bear you a son ... and I will establish my covenant with him." So the article attributes to the angel a message that the Genesis text gives later, and to God rather than to the angel.
This is not just a matter of interpretation: the text distinguishes the angel's prophecy about Ishmael in Genesis 16 from God's later promise about Isaac in Genesis 17.
2 sources
- Genesis 16:11-12 NASB | Bible Gateway
"The angel of the LORD said to her... you shall name him Ishmael... But he will be a wild donkey of a man"
- Genesis 17:19 NIV | Bible Gateway
"Then God said, 'Yes, but your wife Sarah will bear you a son, and you will call him Isaac. I will establish my covenant with him...'"