www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-ai-superforecasters-are-here
1 correction found
In Metaculus’ Market Pulse competition, a purely finance-focused tournament, Preseen’s bot recently beat all humans (including Cup rival MarcosO) to take first place.
Preseen's own site says its Market Pulse 26Q2 result was '1st bot, 3rd of 127 overall,' not first overall. That contradicts the claim that it beat all humans to take first place.
Full reasoning
By the time this post was published, the referenced tournament had already concluded: the Metaculus Market Pulse 26Q2 page says it was closed, with winners announced on July 1, 2026. But Preseen's own homepage, which says its competition numbers 'refresh from each platform’s public page,' describes its Market Pulse 26Q2 standing as '1st bot, 3rd of 127 overall'.
That directly conflicts with the article's claim that Preseen's bot "beat all humans ... to take first place." Based on Preseen's own public summary, it was the top bot, but not the overall winner.
2 sources
- Preseen — See what's next. First.
How we stack up against the competition ... 'Metaculus Market Pulse 26Q2 Predict macro markets, biweekly. 1st bot 3rd of 127 overall Live' ... 'Numbers refresh from each platform’s public page.'
- Market Pulse Challenge 26Q2
The tournament page lists Market Pulse Challenge 26Q2 as 'Closed' with 'Winners announced' on 'Jul 01'.