x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/2102510281176023529
1 correction found
AI is getting cheaper more quickly than any other transformative tech in history.
This absolute claim overstates the comparison. Official DNA-sequencing cost data show at least one historical stretch (2008–2009) in which sequencing costs fell faster than Epoch’s own ~13×/year AI estimate.
Full reasoning
Epoch’s own underlying report equates its AI estimate to about 13× per year (“47% per quarter since 2023, or 13× per year”). But published DNA-sequencing cost tables based on NHGRI data show a faster one-year drop during the next-generation sequencing transition:
- Cost per human genome fell from $3,063,820 in January 2008 to $232,735 in January 2009. That is a 13.2× decline in one year.
- Cost per megabase fell from $102.13 in January 2008 to $2.59 in January 2009. That is a 39.4× decline in one year.
Either way, DNA sequencing had at least one period that was as fast as, and on the per-megabase measure much faster than, the AI rate claimed here. So the blanket statement that AI is getting cheaper more quickly than any other transformative tech in history is not supported by the historical sequencing record.
The likely source of the mismatch is that Epoch compares AI to a long-run 2001–2022 average for DNA sequencing, while this post phrases the result as an unqualified “any other transformative tech in history” claim. The average may be lower, but the absolute claim is broader than what the historical data support.
3 sources
- The plunging price of thought | Epoch AI
“The cost of achieving a given level of AI performance has fallen about 47% per quarter since 2023, or 13× per year.”
- The NHGRI Genome Sequencing Cost Curve | Perspectives on the Human Genome Project and Genomics
The reproduced NHGRI table lists cost per genome of $3,063,820 in January 2008 and $232,735 in January 2009, and cost per megabase of $102.13 in January 2008 and $2.59 in January 2009.
- DNA Sequencing Costs: Data | National Human Genome Research Institute
NHGRI says its graphs show a “sudden and profound out-pacing of Moore's Law beginning in January 2008” as centers transitioned to next-generation sequencing technologies.