freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/llms-were-mostly-but-not-entirely?utm_source=substa...
1 correction found
The only evidence anyone can bring to that prediction is raw assertion.
This overstates the case. By 2026 there were already empirical and model-based studies on AI’s labor-market effects, so the prediction was not supported only by “raw assertion,” even if the evidence remained uncertain and contested.
Full reasoning
There was research-based evidence available on AI's employment effects before this post was published on June 1, 2026.
- An International Labour Organization analysis says it applied occupational exposure scores for generative AI to labour-force survey data for more than 140 countries to estimate employment effects. That is quantitative evidence, not mere assertion.
- A Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond working paper presents a calibrated labor-search model in which AI can produce substantial unemployment effects; its summary says the model implies a 23% employment loss, with half occurring within five years, under one calibrated scenario.
- A U.S. Census Bureau working paper reports observed labor-market changes after ChatGPT's introduction: in the most AI-exposed industry-state cells, early-career employment declined by 12% over 10 quarters and hires fell immediately and persistently.
None of this proves that AI will cause long-term net job loss overall. But it does directly contradict the article's absolute claim that supporters of that prediction can offer only "raw assertion." By June 2026, they could point to modeling, cross-country exposure analysis, and early empirical labor-market evidence.
3 sources
- What is the possible effect of generative AI on employment? | International Labour Organization
To assess the potential impact on existing employment from generative AI, we apply the scores of occupational exposure to generative AI to labour force survey data for more than 140 countries.
- Artificial Intelligence and Technological Unemployment | Richmond Fed
Calibrated to U.S. data, the model implies a threefold productivity gain but a 23% employment loss, half within five years.
- You're (not) Hired: Artificial Intelligence and Early Career Hiring in the Quarterly Workforce Indicators
Regression adjusted employment of early career workers in the most AI-exposed quintile of industry-state cells declined by 12% over the 10 quarters following the introduction of ChatGPT, even as employment in less exposed industries has remained stable.