en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_population_projections
2 corrections found
During the period 2015–2020, the average world fertility rate was 2.1 children per woman
The 2015–2020 world fertility rate was not 2.1 births per woman. UN population tables put the world total fertility rate at about 2.47 for 2015–2020; 2.1 is a later projected level, not the estimate for that period.
Full reasoning
This sentence understates the world’s fertility rate for 2015–2020.
Official UN World Population Prospects tables list the world total fertility rate for 2015–2020 as 2.47 births per woman, not 2.1. Separately, the UN’s 2022 summary says the 2021 global fertility rate was 2.3, and that 2.1 is the level expected by 2050 under the UN projection assumptions.
So the value 2.1 has been assigned to the wrong period: it is a projected future level, not the observed/estimated global average for 2015–2020.
2 sources
- World Population Prospects 2019, Volume I: Comprehensive Tables
Table A.22. Total fertility by region, subregion, country and area (continued) ... 2015-2020 ... World...................................................... 2.47 2.42 2.38 2.29 2.21 2.14 2.08 2.03 1.98 1.94
- World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results
In 2021, the average global fertility rate stood at 2.3 births per woman... According to the assumptions about future fertility made in the United Nations projections ... by 2050, the average global fertility rate is expected to have declined to 2.1.
the UN projects that the population of Nigeria will surpass that of the United States by about 2050.
Current UN projections do not show Nigeria overtaking the United States by about 2050. In the UN’s 2024 revision, the United States is still larger than Nigeria in 2054, and the UN describes Nigeria as eventually surpassing the U.S. later, not by 2050.
Full reasoning
This statement is inconsistent with the UN’s current population projections.
In the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 summary tables, the United States is projected to have 383.8 million people in 2054, while Nigeria is projected to have 374.1 million. That means Nigeria is still projected to be smaller than the United States even several years after 2050.
The UN’s global population overview page likewise says Nigeria is expected to eventually surpass the United States, not that it will do so by about 2050.
So the article’s timing is too early: under the current UN projection set, Nigeria does not overtake the United States by about 2050.
2 sources
- World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results
Nigeria ... 2024 230,271 ... 2054 374,118 ... 2100 476,693 ... ; United States of America ... 2024 344,480 ... 2054 383,767 ... 2100 421,007
- Population | United Nations
As a result, the rankings of the most populous countries may shift, with Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo eventually surpassing the USA, and the United Republic of Tanzania potentially entering the top ten largest countries by the century's end.